SHUFFLE TRACKIN
Once you've played through this segment, you will have taken most of the gain you are going to get from that shoe. Because of this, some trackers prefer shallow penetration.
However, multiple-deck shuffles today are complex compared to the shuffles of ten years ago, and if you're struggling just to keep the running count, don't even dream about shuffle tracking. Shuffle tracking is an advanced card-counting strategy, and as such, it is more difficult than traditional counting. If you can't estimate deck segments in a discard tray just by looking at it, you will not be able to track segments.
Ten years ago, I published the first fairly comprehensive explanation of shuffle tracking ever to appear in print as a three-part Shuffle Tracking Series in Blackjack Forum magazine. (An edited version of this series, consisting primarily of Parts I and II, was published in the 1998 edition of Black belt in Blackjack.)
Back in the mid-1990s, I was much more of the opinion that any competent card counter could learn to track shuffles, provided he practiced. Today, I know that's not true. Based on my experience with training players to track shuffles, it is my belief that most people do not have the visual acuity necessary to pull it off. I also believe that most of those who have learned to track shuffles successfully have combined a sharper-than-average eye with obsessive practice, far beyond that required to be a successful card counter.
In 2003, I published a book on shuffle tracking that went far beyond the material I published back in the '90s, called The Blackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook. If you are interested in obtaining this report, see the information pages in the back of this book. As I do not believe most players can learn to track shuffles, you can save yourself a lot of time and effort by first testing yourself to see if you've got what it takes.
I do believe that any competent card counter who either has or is able to develop the visual acuity to pass three fairly straightforward tests described in the Cookbook can learn to track shuffles successfully. I will provide the tests here so that you can save your time and money if you find that your eyes just aren't sharp enough. Do realize that no one that I've ever met can pass these tests right from the start. Dedicated players who drill themselves on these tests relentlessly do get better with time, so don't be discouraged if your first efforts fail.
Visual acuity is not based on your intelligence, nor is it a function of memory. You do not need particularly sharp eyesight to be a talented card counter, but you do need this innate talent to be a successful shuffle tracker.
For example, a card counter using a balanced count, such as the Hi-Lo or the Zen Count, needs to be able to estimate the number of remaining decks in order to adjust his running count to his true count (or true edge). This is generally done by estimating the number of decks already in the discard tray in order to figure out the number of decks still in the shoe. Regardless of the count system you use, if in a 6-deck game you estimate that 3 1/2 decks are in the discard tray, so that 2 1/2 decks must remain in the shoe, it will make very little difference to your true count estimate if 3 3/4 decks are in the discard tray, leaving 2 1/4 decks in the shoe. In fact, most card counters round off to the nearest 1/2-deck when making true-count adjustments anyway, and extensive computer simulations have shown that this rounding off makes very little difference.
If a shuffle tracker, on the other hand, regularly makes 1/4-deck errors he's unlikely to be playing with any advantage at all. Card counting is very crude compared to shuffle tracking, and crude "ballpark" estimates are not serious errors for card counters. But if you want to track shuffles, you must be far more precise.